Iran, Ceasefires, and Cyber Threats: A Briefing with General Frank McKenzie (Ret.)

Show Notes

In this urgent episode of Cyber Focus recorded June 24, 2025, host Frank Cilluffo speaks with retired General Frank McKenzie, former Commander of U.S. Central Command and Executive Director of the Global and National Security Institute at the University of South Florida. The discussion focuses on the unfolding crisis between Iran and Israel, recent U.S. military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, and the fragile ceasefire now in place. McKenzie offers expert insight into the strategic weakness of Iran, the state of its proxy forces, and the growing threat of Iranian cyberattacks. They also examine how Russia and China are positioning themselves amid the turmoil, the state of U.S. missile defense systems, and what Americans should watch for when it comes to national and homeland security.

Main Topics Covered:

• Iran’s weakened military and the strategic calculus behind the current ceasefire
• U.S. bunker-busting strikes and implications for Iran’s nuclear program
• The future of Iran’s proxy forces and risks of terrorism and radicalization
• China and Russia’s interests in the Middle East crisis
• Iran’s cyber threat posture and U.S. digital vulnerabilities
• Space-based missile defense and the future of homeland security strategy

Key Quotes:

“Iran badly needs a ceasefire. They need to stop the bombardment because they’re losing.” — General Frank McKenzie (Ret.)

“The fact of the matter is Iran has had poor luck operating in the United States… they’re not adept at operating in this environment.” — General Frank McKenzie (Ret.)

“I think self radicalization is probably more of a threat… than a highly organized Iranian attack in the United States or through one of their proxies. But you can’t rule it out.” — General Frank McKenzie (Ret.)

“They do have the ability to attack us here with cyber… they will go where we’re weakest.” — General Frank McKenzie (Ret.)

“If we want to defend the United States against attacks like this from intercontinental ballistic missiles, we’re going to have to be prepared to put systems on orbit, persistent systems on orbit.” — General Frank McKenzie (Ret.)

Relevant Links and Resources:

• Global and National Security Institute at the University of South Florida
• Cyber Florida – The Florida Center for Cybersecurity
• U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM)
• NTAS Bulletin – National Terrorism Advisory System

Guest Bio:
General Frank McKenzie (Ret.) is the Executive Director of the Global and National Security Institute at the University of South Florida and former Commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM). A retired U.S. Marine Corps General, McKenzie brings decades of experience in Middle East operations, nuclear deterrence, and national security strategy. He is a leading voice on cybersecurity, defense policy, and military readiness in the face of global threats.

Transcript

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Frank McKenzie [00:00]:
They do have the ability to attack us here with cyber. That is certainly something that’s got to be on the table for them. And you know, so they will go where we’re weakest. They won’t attack probably the Department of Defense. There are other places that they could probably attack. And so, you know, we at Cyber Florida look at that all the time for the state of Florida. Other entities do it in other locations. But I think that is a potential vulnerability and I think we should certainly be aware of it.

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Frank Cilluffo [00:27]:
Welcome to CyberFocus from the McCrary Institute, where we explore the people and ideas shaping and defending our digital world. I’m your host, Frank Cilluffo and this week we have a very special episode in a very fluid environment. Couldn’t ask for a better guest to talk about the crisis in the Middle East and what the implications are and help us unpack what really matters. General Frank McKenzie, former combatant commander for U.S. Central Command. He’s currently the President of the Global National Security Institute at University of South Florida and couldn’t ask for a better guest to shed light on such an important set of issues than him. General McKenzie, thanks for joining us.

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Frank McKenzie [01:08]:
Frank, always good to be with you.

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Frank Cilluffo [01:10]:
So really appreciate you taking the time. I know your insights are in great demand, but help us from the very beginning to just unpack the situation. What should Americans be thinking about? What do you think some of the implications are? And do you think this ceasefire is going to hold?

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Frank McKenzie [01:27]:
Sure, Frank. So what we see right now is an Iran that is historically weakened. They’re the weakest they’ve been in many decades. They fought a very unsuccessful war with Israel where in really all measurable areas they’ve done very poorly. They’ve not been able to hurt Israel particularly. They’ve not been able to defend their own country. Moreover, over the last year their principal allies of Lebanese Hezbollah in Lebanon and the government of Syria have collapsed. So Iran is in a very bad place.

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Frank McKenzie [01:57]:
Their strategic rocket force, which they place great credit in, has not been effective attacking Israel. Certainly they’ve had some successes, but by and large it has not proven effective. On the other hand, Israeli ability to attack Iran has been clear and obvious. The Iranian air defense network has been essentially ineffective, ineffective against Israeli strikes and over the weekend ineffective against US strikes that struck at the very heart of their nuclear program. So what does that mean? That means Iran badly needs a ceasefire. They need to stop the bombardment because they’re losing. They’ve lost many senior leaders and those senior leaders are probably going to continue to hemorrhage if they stay in the fight. So I think what we saw, first of all the response to the US strike on the Fordo and other nuclear facilities was a very carefully calibrated, choreographed and, in fact, if we’re to believe what people are saying, a pre messaged small attack against Al Yadid Air Base.

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Frank Cilluffo [02:52]:
To save face.

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Frank McKenzie [02:54]:
To save face, 14 missiles, which is easily within our capacity to handle. Al Yadid Air Base is our largest air base in the region, located about 40 miles south of Doha, Qatar. We were able to parry that attack very efficiently, very effectively, and no casualties or any particular damage on the ground. So Iran conducted that attack and then there’s, then what that means is they’ve responded to our attack. Okay. They can message that to their internal audience, but what they really need is a ceasefire. And so I’m not surprised that they acceded to President Trump’s terms.

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Frank McKenzie [03:26]:
Over the next 24 hours, Frank, I think we’ll see if the cease fire holds. Iranian command and control is always rickety. It’s not like our command and control and a lot of their senior leaders are dead. So I’m not surprised that attacks continued after the deadline. It will be important that they actually stop because the Israelis are going to respond. There’s no way they’re going to turn the other cheek to Iranian attacks. So I think the truce is in a very delicate phase right now, but there’s no reason to believe it won’t hold over time. And so this is something very significant to watch for.

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Frank Cilluffo [03:59]:
And the US strikes, A, were you surprised? B, do you think that they will have the net effect? We’re hoping, and that’s obviously to not have a new nuclear Iran.

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Frank McKenzie [04:11]:
Frank, what we want more than anything else is Iran to not have a nuclear weapon. But we’d also like them to renounce their militarized element of their existing nuclear program. Now, what that’s going to mean, I don’t know. Is it going to mean complete denuclearization of Iran, or is it going to mean Iran retains some residual nuclear capability that’s carefully watched and monitored by appropriate international organizations? I don’t know what that’s going to be, but I think what we’re going to need here is a policy statement from Iran that says that. And that would be, I believe, the US Goal. If there’s no policy statement from Iran, then I think we’re in a situation where we’re going to continue to strike Iran’s nuclear program as it manifests signs of activity, which is not where Iran wants us to be, nor necessarily where we want to be.

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Frank Cilluffo [04:55]:
Well said. And you also mentioned sort of about their rickety leadership, which I love that terminology and command and control, because it’s not, it’s not as top down as perhaps some of that would look in a national command authority in the United States, for example, and we often tend to mirror image. I always thought the greatest threat was not their military threat, but the fact that they do have proxies, they do have, they are the number one state sponsor of terrorism. And is that something Americans should be concerned about? Obviously in the region, but also here.

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Frank McKenzie [05:28]:
It remains very real. However, Lebanese Hezbollah, the largest non state military entity in the world and I would have argued as recently as six or seven months ago the principal threat to Israel, is no longer a player. They’ve been knocked back. They may regain some of that over time. I’m not sure that they will, but they’re certainly gravely weakened. However, Iran still has other proxies that they can fall back on, ranging from the Houthis down in the Strait of Bab El Medeb, they have the ability to close the Suez Canal effectively, to proxies in Iraq and Syria that could attack our forces there.

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Frank McKenzie [06:02]:
And of course, your final part of your question, and attack our homeland here. But the fact of the matter is Iran has had poor luck operating in the United States. As many people are aware. In 2011 they tried to kill the Saudi ambassador to the United States by blowing up the Cafe Milano in Georgetown. That blew up in their face. Literally. They were uncovered. It was embarrassing.

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Frank McKenzie [06:23]:
They’re not adept at operating in this environment. Look, you can’t say they won’t try something. I’m not prepared to say that.

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Frank Cilluffo [06:29]:
Doesn’t necessarily mean they succeed.

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Frank McKenzie [06:31]:
Right. I think self radicalization is probably more of a threat where someone listening in a basement or somewhere becomes radicalized, buys a pistol and goes out and does something. I think that is more likely than a highly organized Iranian attack in the United States or through one of their proxies. But you can’t rule it out.

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Frank Cilluffo [06:48]:
And you know, general, that’s exactly where I am. When it comes to the homegrown radicalization, it manifests itself in different kinds of ways and you don’t necessarily know what’s going to trigger someone from, cause someone to act. And I do think that’s probably at the top of the list. And ironically you’re starting to see some that take on different causes. They just seem to be jumping into that space. But in terms of Iran’s official proxies, long on nouns, short on verbs, is that fair?

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Frank McKenzie [07:26]:
I’d say that’s where we are right now. I think they still have some capability in the region. Not nearly as much as they used to. Again, it is difficult to overstate the importance of LH, Lebanese Hezbollah.

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Frank Cilluffo [07:38]:
You’re right, they were the A team.

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Frank McKenzie [07:40]:
Not existing as what it once was. That was a powerful, powerful threat that no longer exists in practical terms today.

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Frank Cilluffo [07:46]:
Yeah, no, that’s well said and I think accurate. Now that can change over time obviously. In terms of the region, what do you think is of, of greatest, because you’ve got the great powers also circling the wagons here, right? What does this mean for Russia, China?

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Frank McKenzie [08:05]:
Russia and China are interested, but Russia’s keeping its distance. They don’t have actually much to contribute. If you stop to think about it, it is not in Russia’s best interest for Iran to possess a nuclear weapon. Moscow is much closer to Tehran than Washington is. And going back centuries, Russia has always been keenly sensitive to a strong Iran. The great game of the last couple of centuries very much on Russia’s mind. Strategically, a weakened Iran, and certainly an Iran that doesn’t possess a nuclear weapon, is very much in the best interest of Russia. China wants to play.

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Frank McKenzie [08:40]:
China’s interests remain primarily economic. They’re not positioned to do much right now, although they’re keenly concerned about the Strait of Hormuz because so much of their energy supply comes through that channel. One of the options Iran has, of course, is to close the Strait of Hormuz. They’ve shown no evidence of doing that yet. They could do it quickly and if they did it, it would be the world insuring organizations that would decide whether or not the strait’s open because they’re just not going to insure ships. And so that could be a, it could have a profound effect on world commerce. We would have the ability over time to clear that channel.

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Frank McKenzie [09:13]:
It would take some time. It would not be immediate. It would probably also involve sinking and destroying the Iranian navy. We’ve done that before. We’re prepared to do it again if we have to, but it would not be an easy task.

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Frank Cilluffo [09:23]:
And energy and oil prices seem to have dropped.

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Frank McKenzie [09:27]:
They seem to have dropped. Do something in the Strait of Hormuz, they’ll go back up. And that’s something that, I’m sure we’re watching that very closely.

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Frank Cilluffo [09:34]:
And you know, I often say it’s important for US interests to have a sense of what’s going on in flashpoints around the world. I joke, somewhat jokingly say these are movies coming to a theater near you soon. But Iran’s cyber capability, maybe not at the level of the People’s Republic of China or Russia, but what they lack in capability they make up for with intent to one extent or another.

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Frank McKenzie [10:01]:
They sure do, Frank. You know, a lot of not capability at a lower level, a lot of energy behind it.

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Frank Cilluffo [10:07]:
Literally too.

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Frank McKenzie [10:10]:
Flat footed, ham fisted in the United States. But they do have the ability to attack us here with cyber. That is certainly something that’s got to be on the table for them. And you know, so they will go where we’re weakest. They won’t attack, probably the Department of Defense. There are other places that they could probably attack. And so, you know, we at Cyber Florida look at that all the time for the state of Florida. Other entities do it in other locations.

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Frank McKenzie [10:32]:
But I think that is a potential vulnerability and I think we should certainly be aware of it.

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Frank Cilluffo [10:36]:
And the adage spray and pray. I mean it doesn’t even have to be a long standing, but I think ransomware, other, any, anything that can cause a little bit disarray. And the flip side, is this also a diversionary time for some of these great powers to enable some of their own goals?

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Frank McKenzie [10:57]:
I think you’re spot on on that. They will look for weaknesses, they’ll look for the opportunity to maneuver in cyber as we are perhaps fixated with the Iranians. And if Iranians attack and fail, it may create a gap or an opportunity for someone else to gain access to a system that might not otherwise be available.

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Frank Cilluffo [11:14]:
And deception as well. So that adds to all of that, which I think is a big set of challenges. And our ability to do attribution is improved exponentially. But it’s not 100%.

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Frank McKenzie [11:30]:
It’s much better than it used to be. But you’re right, this would be an opportunity for a hidden hand operation, things like that.

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Frank Cilluffo [11:37]:
Absolutely. And help me understand, everyone’s hearing about bunker buster weapons. What do we need to know there in an open setting?

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Frank McKenzie [11:48]:
Certainly. So the GBU 57 is a large bomb designed to be dropped from a B2 that can penetrate deeply buried targets. It’s a combination of its weight and the way we built the weapon to get after targets that are deeply underground, like Fordo was. It’s a plan and a technique that we’ve practiced for years. It’s a contingency plan we’ve had on the shelf for, for any president should we choose to take out the Iranian nuclear program. I’m gratified to see that the operation went smoothly. That apparently uncontested by Iran.

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Frank McKenzie [12:20]:
And I believe, I’ll use the words the chairman used over the weekend, we severely degraded the nuclear program. We’ll know more about it in the days ahead, Frank, as we gain more knowledge about the effect of our strikes. But I think we have been effective. We have pushed the Iranians back. Just how much, we’ll learn over time.

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Frank Cilluffo [12:36]:
Well said. And what about our own domestic missile defense consideration? I mean, obviously there’s been a lot of discussion around Iron Dome, a lot of attention on Golden Dome here in the United States. Any, anything we can be gleaning.

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Frank McKenzie [12:53]:
So look, the Israelis seem to have had a success rate of 90% or higher. And that’s probably too low actually for ballistic missile defense. You’re going to want to be up at the 98, 99 or even higher percentile. So I think, you know, what will happen is the IDF, the Israeli Defense Force is a learning organization. They’ll get better as they’re able to characterize, you know, the Iranian missiles. But the larger takeaway, if you’re going to talk about large scale ballistic missile defense for the United States, the fact of the matter is the time to shoot a missile down is when it launches.

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Frank Cilluffo [13:27]:
Exactly.

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Frank McKenzie [13:28]:
It’s on a fixed trajectory, it can’t maneuver, it can’t deploy what we would call penetration aids. It’s very easy to hit. It has a large thermal bloom, it has a large signature. To do that requires space based systems.

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Frank Cilluffo [13:39]:
Absolutely.

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Frank McKenzie [13:40]:
And so if we want to defend the United States against attacks like this from intercontinental ballistic missiles, we’re going to have to be prepared to put systems on orbit, persistent systems on orbit that are going to be able to detect, we actually have a great capability to detect now, but ability to quickly categorize and respond to missiles of this nature that would launch from another continent to attack the United States. Look, I actually don’t think this is technically a dramatic advance over what we’re doing now. I think it’s, I think it’s, I think it’s possible to do. I certainly think it’s worth pursuing. I think any, any, any plan that increases the defense of the continental United States is a good thing.

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Frank Cilluffo [14:19]:
Yeah.

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Frank McKenzie [14:20]:
You know, and there are other things we need to look at too. We need to look at defending ourselves against long range cruise missiles, and we need to examine hypersonics. But again, a hypersonic still has to gain speed. It has to get to where it’s going. So the time to knock down a hypersonic is early in its flight, before it begins.

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Frank Cilluffo [14:36]:
It has to be, right?

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Frank McKenzie [14:37]:
Exactly. Before it can begin to maneuver.

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Frank Cilluffo [14:39]:
Yeah. Well said. And if you look back to President Reagan, SDI and Brilliant Pebbles and all these sorts of initiatives, they didn’t all, we didn’t achieve all their intentions, but strategically we did. And I think it played a significant role in basically bankrupting the Soviet Union and winning the Cold War. Is that overstatement by me?

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Frank McKenzie [15:01]:
So I don’t think so. I think it rattled the Soviets. It had a lot to do with their behavior late, what I call late in the life cycle of the Soviet Union. And I think some of those capabilities and some of the thought behind it are particularly valid today. Look, I support the idea of a missile defense for the United States. I think the President’s on to something. It will not be inexpensive. We won’t get it in a year or two.

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Frank McKenzie [15:24]:
But we can move toward it because I believe the technological hurdles are perhaps less severe than we might imagine.

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Frank Cilluffo [15:32]:
So we’ve got the ceasefire. Time will tell how effective and efficient it is. What else should we be thinking at this time? And granted, we’re going to get this one out fast. So because it’s a very fluid environment.

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Frank McKenzie [15:44]:
So we should look, will the ceasefire hold or not, I think is the first thing. We would prefer that it hold and we prefer then that we get into distinct negotiations with the Iranians about the future of their nuclear program and indeed about the future of their ballistic missiles, too. That will be the hard part of this. It’s going to be a lot easier to get to the table than to hold those discussions at the table. The Iranians are not particularly good war fighters. They are brilliant negotiators and they will seek to draw out the negotiations in time. I think we need to be prepared to apply the stick as well in these negotiations.

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Frank McKenzie [16:14]:
It’s not all carrot. It’s a substantial stick that we might need to be prepared to apply to them if we want these negotiations to go forward. And I think we should look at that. In the meantime, I do think we should remain aware and sensitive to attacks in the United States and cyber attacks. All of them are possible. Maybe they’re not likely, but I think they’re possible. And I think we need to be alert for that.

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Frank Cilluffo [16:35]:
And there was a bulletin put out, the National Terrorism Advisory System, an NTAS bulletin on this. And I think it also underscored the homegrown radicalization threat as being prominent. General McKenzie, what questions didn’t I ask that I should have?

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Frank McKenzie [16:53]:
Frank, I thought you got to most of the questions. It was a pleasure to be here with you today.

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Frank Cilluffo [16:57]:
Well, it’s a privilege to be able to work with you. Big fan of the work you’re doing at the Global National Security Institute in Cyber Florida at USF, University of South Florida. I am going to give you a War Eagle, though, because I know you’ve got an affinity for Auburn as well.

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Frank McKenzie [17:15]:
I do have some Auburn blood in me and I will just close by saying, go Bulls and War Eagle.

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Frank Cilluffo [17:19]:
War Eagle. And general, as I close, let me give you a token of our appreciation, both figuratively and literally. It’s our coin. And thank you for all you’ve done.

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Frank McKenzie [17:28]:
Thank you so much. Thanks, Frank. Thank you.

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Frank Cilluffo [17:30]:
Thank you for joining us for this episode of Cyber Focus. If you liked what you heard, please consider subscribing. Your ratings and reviews help us reach more listeners. Drop us a line if you have any ideas in terms of topics, themes, or individuals you’d like for us to host. Until next time, stay safe, stay informed, and stay curious.